Opinion: Could Tim Keller lose? The data says it’s closer than you think

Analysis by Editor Kevin Hendricks, City Hall Reporter Jesse Jones and Publisher Pat Davis

By the time early voting ended Saturday night, 82,013 (22% of eligible voters) had turned out in the city’s runoff elections (kudos to County Clerk Michelle Kavanaugh, PIO Estevan Vásquez and the clerk’s team for sharing that data late Saturday night).

To date, 43,350 (53%) are registered Democrats and 26,131 (32%) are registered Republicans. Another 12,529 (15%) are “decline to state” (independent) and smaller parties.

So what does that mean for Tuesday’s decisive runoff election?

We asked three folks from our newsroom who have been following the candidates and money from the beginning for their hot takes:

Editor Kevin Hendricks:

I talked with the Keller campaign on Friday. They are leaning on a ground game instead of TV in the final stretch. Volunteers will knock doors across the city this weekend, with shifts in Nob Hill on Saturday and the West. The campaign expects the usual runoff drop-off of about 40% but said early voting trends look similar to November’s.

City Hall Reporter Jesse Jones:

County Clerk Michelle Kavanaugh expects a strong Election Day turnout, especially at historically busy sites. Remember that we saw long E-Day lines in more conservative areas in November. There are also fewer polling places open on Tuesday, so double-check before you go.

Publisher Pat Davis:

Turnout in a runoff election is notoriously low, but supporters of the leaders don’t usually change. In the Nov. 4 election, Keller only won 35.7% of voters. That means 65% voted for someone else. White secured 30% in that first round.

In the runoff, if we assume that every Democrat who voted so far is for Keller and that DTS voters will split Keller/White at the same Keller/not-Keller rate all voters did in Nov., then the runoff is Keller’s to lose.

We talked to folks on both sides on Friday and no one thinks it’s that simple. White is tracking a “large number” of anti-Keller Democrats saying they voted for White and Keller’s team is telling supporters this is closer than partisan registration would predict. Case in point: White logged more than 600 donors in 3 weeks and he just dropped another $100,000 in TV ads to run the last days of the election. Keller locked in all of this TV money early and is pivoting to door knocking, as Kevin found out.

Back to the math: Of voters who already turned out, White just needs to pick up just 10,000 or so of traditional Keller voters and it’s an even race. He can do it if just 20% of voting Democrats pick White (less than the Uballez-Armijo bloc) and/or independent voters swing closer to 80 percent for White. That margin gets closer if more Republicans and non-partisans are waiting until Tuesday’s Election Day to vote, as they did in Nov.

As someone reminded me, Darren White isn’t supposed to win, but it sure looks like he could. Or at least it will be much closer than it should be.

No matter what happens, if you read City Desk you are more informed that most. Our team have published more than 50 election stories covering campaigns, fact-checking candidates and following the money. No other newsroom came close.