Battle for the 5th vote: Conservatives eye majority, progressives fight for control through Westside runoffs

Citywide, turnout for runoff elections ending Tues. Dec. 9 is strong, but that’s not the case in the two city council elections playing out on the City’s Westside that will have a big citywide impact.

In District 1, where current Councilor Louie Sanchez chose to run for mayor, Republican Joshuan Neal is challenging Democrat Stephanie Telles. Just 25% of the district’s 43,667 voters have turned out, so far. Partisan turnout data is not available from the county clerk, but the district has traditionally elected Democrats (all of the state legislative seats representing that district are held by Democrats).

Republicans see a pickup opportunity here because of strong citywide Republican turnout in the regular Nov. election. Outside groups on both sides have been spending money on mail and digital turnout messaging.

In District 3 on the southwest mesa, traditionally the city’s lowest turnout district, just 11.5% of 33,183 eligible voters have turned out so far. In the three-way regular election in Nov., 58% of voters chose someone other than longtime incumbent Klarissa Peña who has been a strong advocate for Westside investments and a moderate vote on council.

Progressive groups have spent big to bolster Teresa Garcia who has come under attack by conservatives and Peña’s campaign for a domestic violence incident for which she was acquitted by a jury years ago. Peña is likely looking for a low turnout, and she might get it.

With four conservatives and three progressives already on council, progressive activists need both Garcia and Telles to win in order to have any hope of advancing their policy priorities in the next council.

Currently, Dan Lewis, Dan Champine, Reneé Grout and Brook Bassan make up a conservative bloc on the council. Councilors Tammy Fiebelkorn, Nichole Rogers and Joaquín Baca carry a more liberal flag.

Watch District 1’s race to forecast control of council. If Neal wins in District 1, conservatives will pickup a critical fifth vote for majority control and will likely select the new council president and control how legislation moves through council committees.

If Telles wins in District 1, all eyes move to District 3 to see if progressives pickup majority control or whether voting blocks will be more fluid based on issue.