Home » Opinion: New polling shows any candidate could beat Keller for mayor, but take it with a grain of salt
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Opinion: New polling shows any candidate could beat Keller for mayor, but take it with a grain of salt
Keller is still the one to beat but “anyone else” dynamic creates unusual opportunities in what should be a typical incumbent protection race.
Screenshot from Tim Keller's campaign launch video, 2025
Pat Davis is the founder and publisher of City Desk ABQ and nm.new.s He is a recovering politician having served eight years as an Albuquerque City Councilor and, in another life, he served as a police officer and nonprofit organizer.
Get ready for fundraising emails, folks. Over the next few days, mayoral candidates looking to unseat Tim Keller in November’s election will be telling Albuquerque voters the same thing: “New polling shows that I can beat Tim Keller… If you donate now.”
They are all right according to new polling released this week by the conservative New Mexico Business Coalition (NMBC). But there’s more to the story.
You get what you pay for
Let’s get this out of the way up front: this poll is more an exercise in NMBC self-promotion than hard political intelligence. This is evident from the limited results memo and selected results leaked to operatives, which lack details on respondent selection or how key questions were framed before asking “who would you vote for.”
And while NMBC, like city elections, is technically nonpartisan, the NMBC operates with a conservative agenda (their 2024 “scorecard” for state senate candidates gave 80 percent of Democratic candidates an “F” and all Republicans an “A”). The polling firm, Rival Strategies Group, also has a history with conservative campaigns including Nella Dominici, Yvette Herrell and the New Mexico Republican Party. Put simply, it’s no surprise that a conservative group paid a conservative firm to find that a liberal mayor could be beaten by a more conservative opponent.
However, this isn’t just about one poll, it’s just the first one with public data we can dissect.
A bigger problem for Keller
While no one is taking this snapshot as gospel, it’s the latest in a series of candidate and advocacy group polls being passed among operatives and donors consistently showing Keller to be incredibly unpopular and vulnerable to any challenger who reaches the runoff election for mayor.
The NMBC survey of just over 500 likely city voters in mid-July found that a whopping 64 percent are unhappy with the city’s direction, and 60 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Keller (only 33 percent view him favorably, with the rest undecided).
For reference, this level of unpopularity is almost exactly the same as then-President Joe Biden’s in mid-July 2024 (36 favorable/58 unfavorable) just before he dropped out of his re-election campaign. As Biden discovered, once voters form an opinion about a candidate, it’s extremely difficult to change their minds.
NMBC found that 93 percent of voters have already formed an opinion of Keller (60 percent unfavorable). Most other candidates are largely unknown. Mayling Armijo and Daniel Chavez are unknown by over 80 percent of voters. 74 percent don’t know Eddie Varela, 69 percent have yet to form an opinion of former U.S. Attorney Alex Uballez, and 60 percent don’t know City Councilor Louie Sanchez. Only former sheriff Darren White is already known by more than half of voters.
But the candidates know what NMBC knew when designing the poll: the real race isn’t the 7-way first round on the November ballot.
If the runoff were held today…
With seven candidates and a rule requiring the winner to get over 50 percent, a runoff between the top two is almost certain. This means Keller plus one challenger.
This is why the poll’s hypothetical head-to-head findings are so interesting: Keller loses to every single candidate.
While Keller’s team might be comfortable heading into the November election with a mostly unknown field, these runoff scenarios are significant. They suggest that, given the choice, voters might prefer an unknown opponent over another four years with Keller.
And, there’s more. Take the head-to-head between Keller and Uballez, the young, progressive former top federal prosecutor. According to the poll, 51 percent of self-described conservatives would pick Uballez over Keller, despite most of them not knowing much about him. Uballez also carries moderates 41-23 (in that scenario, Keller carries liberals 44-27) and a whole lot of voters are still persuadable.
In a runoff between Keller and White where far fewer voters are undecided this early, Keller predictably carries liberals 70-10 but White’s coalition of moderates (43-33) and conservatives (79-8) makes that runoff a very interesting one to consider.
Despite all this, Keller is still the favorite to be our next mayor, but don’t sleep on it yet. The “anyone but Keller” dynamic creates unusual opportunities in what should be a typical incumbent protection race. Candidates with minimal name recognition are achieving competitive numbers simply by not being Tim Keller, and whoever emerges into the runoff will likely carry the considerable advantage of pre-existing voter dissatisfaction. But as Joe Biden now knows, running against the other guy isn’t always enough. And, at least for now, no one is really breaking through to voters with an agenda of their own.
This report is more than a news story. We partnered with NMreports to expand our ability to cover stories that help readers understand how New Mexico works and inspire them to participate in public decisions.
When you see "Reader-supported"on a story it means your donations helped us cover a story we would have otherwise missed. Become an investor in rebuilding local news for New Mexico by giving a monthly or one-time donation now.
Opinion: New polling shows any candidate could beat Keller for mayor, but take it with a grain of salt
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Pat Davis is the founder and publisher of City Desk ABQ and nm.new.s He is a recovering politician having served eight years as an Albuquerque City Councilor and, in another life, he served as a police officer and nonprofit organizer.
Get ready for fundraising emails, folks. Over the next few days, mayoral candidates looking to unseat Tim Keller in November’s election will be telling Albuquerque voters the same thing: “New polling shows that I can beat Tim Keller… If you donate now.”
They are all right according to new polling released this week by the conservative New Mexico Business Coalition (NMBC). But there’s more to the story.
You get what you pay for
Let’s get this out of the way up front: this poll is more an exercise in NMBC self-promotion than hard political intelligence. This is evident from the limited results memo and selected results leaked to operatives, which lack details on respondent selection or how key questions were framed before asking “who would you vote for.”
And while NMBC, like city elections, is technically nonpartisan, the NMBC operates with a conservative agenda (their 2024 “scorecard” for state senate candidates gave 80 percent of Democratic candidates an “F” and all Republicans an “A”). The polling firm, Rival Strategies Group, also has a history with conservative campaigns including Nella Dominici, Yvette Herrell and the New Mexico Republican Party. Put simply, it’s no surprise that a conservative group paid a conservative firm to find that a liberal mayor could be beaten by a more conservative opponent.
However, this isn’t just about one poll, it’s just the first one with public data we can dissect.
A bigger problem for Keller
While no one is taking this snapshot as gospel, it’s the latest in a series of candidate and advocacy group polls being passed among operatives and donors consistently showing Keller to be incredibly unpopular and vulnerable to any challenger who reaches the runoff election for mayor.
The NMBC survey of just over 500 likely city voters in mid-July found that a whopping 64 percent are unhappy with the city’s direction, and 60 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Keller (only 33 percent view him favorably, with the rest undecided).
For reference, this level of unpopularity is almost exactly the same as then-President Joe Biden’s in mid-July 2024 (36 favorable/58 unfavorable) just before he dropped out of his re-election campaign. As Biden discovered, once voters form an opinion about a candidate, it’s extremely difficult to change their minds.
NMBC found that 93 percent of voters have already formed an opinion of Keller (60 percent unfavorable). Most other candidates are largely unknown. Mayling Armijo and Daniel Chavez are unknown by over 80 percent of voters. 74 percent don’t know Eddie Varela, 69 percent have yet to form an opinion of former U.S. Attorney Alex Uballez, and 60 percent don’t know City Councilor Louie Sanchez. Only former sheriff Darren White is already known by more than half of voters.
But the candidates know what NMBC knew when designing the poll: the real race isn’t the 7-way first round on the November ballot.
If the runoff were held today…
With seven candidates and a rule requiring the winner to get over 50 percent, a runoff between the top two is almost certain. This means Keller plus one challenger.
This is why the poll’s hypothetical head-to-head findings are so interesting: Keller loses to every single candidate.
While Keller’s team might be comfortable heading into the November election with a mostly unknown field, these runoff scenarios are significant. They suggest that, given the choice, voters might prefer an unknown opponent over another four years with Keller.
And, there’s more. Take the head-to-head between Keller and Uballez, the young, progressive former top federal prosecutor. According to the poll, 51 percent of self-described conservatives would pick Uballez over Keller, despite most of them not knowing much about him. Uballez also carries moderates 41-23 (in that scenario, Keller carries liberals 44-27) and a whole lot of voters are still persuadable.
In a runoff between Keller and White where far fewer voters are undecided this early, Keller predictably carries liberals 70-10 but White’s coalition of moderates (43-33) and conservatives (79-8) makes that runoff a very interesting one to consider.
Despite all this, Keller is still the favorite to be our next mayor, but don’t sleep on it yet. The “anyone but Keller” dynamic creates unusual opportunities in what should be a typical incumbent protection race. Candidates with minimal name recognition are achieving competitive numbers simply by not being Tim Keller, and whoever emerges into the runoff will likely carry the considerable advantage of pre-existing voter dissatisfaction. But as Joe Biden now knows, running against the other guy isn’t always enough. And, at least for now, no one is really breaking through to voters with an agenda of their own.
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Local democracy needs local journalists.
This report is more than a news story. We partnered with NMreports to expand our ability to cover stories that help readers understand how New Mexico works and inspire them to participate in public decisions.
When you see "Reader-supported"on a story it means your donations helped us cover a story we would have otherwise missed. Become an investor in rebuilding local news for New Mexico by giving a monthly or one-time donation now.